climatetippingpoints.info

Several environmentalist campaigners and commentators have recently stated that leading actuaries – the branch of the finance industry that estimates and prices catastrophic risks – have predicted that climate change beyond 2 degrees of warming (beyond pr…

The first of a new occassional ‘News Explainer’ series, briefly summarising recent news on climate tipping points (and checking how well the media reported it).

This autumn, several media articles reported on a study showing the global carbon sink on land – which so far has drawn down around a quarter of human carbon dioxide emissions – took up very little carbon in 2023.

A recent study renewed worries that the ‘AMOC’ – a key set of ocean currents – could soon pass a tipping point and shutdown this century, with major ramifications for the climate.

A paper presenting an updated assessment of climate tipping points was published yesterday in the journal Science.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its sixth assessment report (AR6) in August.

The Amazon contains half of the Earth’s remaining rainforest, but is being degraded by deforestation and climate change.

Claim: The lag between CO₂ emissions and warming means ~0.7°C of warming is yet to come, and aerosols are masking another ~0.7°C, meaning warming of much more than 1.5°C or even 2°C is already locked in even if we stopped all emissions right now.

Claim: Once global warming reaches 2°C (which we’ve nearly reached already, but scientists are downplaying it), positive feedback loops and tipping points will trigger rapid runaway warming and guarantee apocalyptic climate change in the next few decades.

This is the fourth post in a new climatetippingoints.info series fact-checking claims that various climate tipping points have been crossed, and that sudden catastrophic warming is now inevitable.