Cliff Mass Weather Blog

The visible satellite image this morning was an October classic: Low clouds (stratus and fog) within the valleys of western Washington, Oregon, and southern British Columbia.

We went through a meteorological time machine this year.

When air approaches a mountain barrier, it is forced to rise and, in doing so, cools.

The first significant atmospheric river of autumn has arrived.

Now that we have entered fall, it is time to evaluate whether our summer weather was unusual.

As the models predicted, a strong storm with powerful winds is moving across our region, and nearly 100,000 customers are without power as I write this blog.

Autumn began yesterday at 5 PM and the atmosphere has taken notice.

We are now at the peak of the bird migration season, and weather radar does a good job of tracking our feathered friends.

We are now in the time of year with the lowest electricity demand in the Pacific Northwest, driven by our meteorology (see below).

For much of this year, some in the media and online have warned about drought and heat, predicting serious negative consequences for Washington State agriculture.

With the recent rain and cooling, the wildfire season is essentially over for the Pacific Northwest.

If you were to order a "storm" for the Northwest, you would request one that drops lots of rain over the crest and eastern side of the Cascades, decisively ending the wildfire season and providing needed moisture to late-season crops.

It is now clear that a very strong or "super" El Niño will be in place this year.

The wildfire season in the Pacific Northwest is rapidly approaching the endgame, with huge declines during the past month.

Weather prediction has become far more skillful in recent decades, with nearly all major regional weather/climate threats accurately predicted days in advance.

Climatologically, the most costly meteorological disaster west of the Cascade crest occurs at this time of the year: massive wildfires associated with strong easterly winds.

Normally, tropical storms and hurricanes avoid the area of the Hawaiian Islands.

One of the most remarkable aspects of Northwest climate is the rapid fall transition from summerlike conditions to cold and wet between September 1 and November 1.

For those concerned about the wildfire threat over the Pacific Northwest, there is good news.

The media and social media are abuzz with talk about the upcoming "Super" El Niño, with forecasts of low snowpack, drought conditions, and massive wildfires (see sample below).

The Pacific Northwest has begun the late summer cooling period, with a substantial cooling occurring over the entire region.

Again and again I am asked: Do I Believe in Human-Caused Climate Change/GlobalWarning?

Autumn doesn't wait until September 22 in the Pacific Northwest.

Perhaps the most impactful Washington State wildfire of this summer is the Little Giant Fire near Lake Chelan, ignited on July 15 by a lightning storm and now extending over 135,985 acres (see map below) The fire is still active today, with plenty of smoke

Although in the tropics, Hawaii rarely gets hit by hurricanes.

This summer, wildfire activity east of the Cascades has been above normal.

Good news for those of you who dislike heatwaves: There are none forecast over the Pacific Northwest for the next 10 days.

This year, wildfire acreage in California has been well below average and is being eclipsed by the lightning-initiated wildfires in the Pacific Northwest.

On July 15/16, a massive lightning storm initiated several major wildfires east of the Cascade crest.

As expected, air quality is rapidly improving west of the Cascades, with the transition complete by tomorrow morning.

As predicted, the winds aloft have turned easterly (from the east), resulting in smoke from eastern Washington moving aloft over western Washington.

One of the most interesting aspects of the current smoke/fire event is that it is occurring during a cold wave.

As feared, the great enhancement of cool, westerly winds caused a large increase in eastern Washington wildfires, with the Little Giant Fire expanding to Lake Chelan.

Rain is coming to western Washington and the Cascades during the climatologically driest time of the year.

With the recent grass/range fires in Eastern Washington, there is some interest in whether conditions there have gotten drier or warmer.

During the last few weeks, a series of wildfires have occurred over the region.

On Thursday around 5:15 PM, a Kenmore Air float plane crashed on the south side of Sucia Island in the San Juans.

Sometimes the weather gets stuck in a totally benign pattern, with little threat of heatwaves, wildfire explosions, heavy rain, or anything else of note.