Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine

Kevin Warsh, one hundred days into his chairmanship, used Jackson Hole to retire forward guidance, the practice he helped install as a Governor during the financial crisis, arguing that Fed talk...

Kevin Warsh, in his second meeting as Chairman, held rates unchanged at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on July 29, 2026, in a non-unanimous vote...

On December 7, 1970, Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur F.

Warsh named fifteen independent experts to examine whether the Fed's methods can be improved.

Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting installed the framework the series predicted, on a schedule that points to a December cut — licensed by a productivity payoff the Fed cannot yet measure...

Kevin Warsh's confirmation testimony committed the next Federal Reserve chairmanship to a coordinated balance-sheet and rate-cut program.

The Federal Reserve's look-through doctrine works when energy shocks mean-revert.

The fifth pillar the doctrine does not name is the institution's most documented operational commitment.

The roadmap maps four pillars and depends on five.

Warsh has committed the next chairmanship under oath to a couple trillion dollars over time in concert with the Treasury Secretary.

The doctrine Kevin Warsh carried into his confirmation hearing is not his alone.

Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on April 21, 2026, for confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair.

Judy Shelton describes a fiscal burden the Fed has imposed on the Treasury through interest payments on reserves.

Yellen arrives in Hong Kong with the most analytically sophisticated version of the argument the archive has tested repeatedly: this is a supply shock, expectations are anchored, the Fed should be...

Money enters the economy through two channels — bank lending and government deficit spending — that interact through bank balance sheet composition.

Buffett names Powell and Volcker as his two Fed heroes and proposes two remedies — zero inflation, stability paramount — that the archive shows are mutually incompatible with the heroes'...

Buffett identifies four features of the monetary landscape — reserve currency vulnerability, banking fragility, contagion speed, and crisis response adequacy — and the archive validates his...

Miran constructs his dissent from five historical precedents: the Greenspan productivity bet, the 'classic reasoning' of looking through supply shocks, the disinflationary power of deregulation,...

Miran proposes shrinking the Fed's balance sheet by $1–2 trillion through destigmatizing the discount window, easing LCR requirements, and normalizing MBS holdings — a comprehensive reform...

The FOMC's most consequential failures share a common architecture: unanimous votes masking unresolved analytical disagreement.

Four changes across 240 words.

The public narrative of Federal Reserve independence rests on institutional architecture — the 1951 Accord, fourteen-year terms, transparency norms, explicit inflation targets — presented as...

An analyst submits a five-link causal hypothesis tracing transmission from a Qatar LNG disruption through Japan's balance-of-payments stress into US Treasury markets and financial conditions.

Bessent proposes dismantling the post-crisis liquidity framework, calling the self-insurance mandate a fundamental mistake born of crisis trauma, blaming the LCR for entrenching discount window...

Waller dissents in favor of a rate cut and publicly articulates a framework built on four claims: 'looking through' tariff-driven inflation is traditional central bank wisdom, expectations are...

Vice Chair Bowman proposes to reform a liquidity framework the Federal Reserve spent fifty years documenting as unreformable.

Business-cycle research holds that recessions originate in a small number of interest-rate-sensitive sectors.

A labor market analysis of 45.4 million job postings reveals Simpson's Paradox at work — and the same paradox has operated inside the Federal Reserve's treatment of inflation data for fifty-three years.

Vice Chair Bowman proposes loosening the post-crisis mortgage capital framework.

Governor Miran assembled five individually defensible arguments into a unified case for rate cuts.

Judy Shelton invokes Volcker, dismisses Phillips Curve reasoning, proposes gold-backed bonds, and promises rate cuts will rescue small business.

Kevin Warsh made five specific claims about what's broken at the Fed.

The Fed's January statement is not what it appears to be.

Documentary evidence from 90 years of FOMC materials reveals how the Federal Reserve's choice of inflation measure—and the 'special factors' narratives it required—served institutional adaptation to fiscal dominance rather than methodological judgment.

The 2020 transcripts just dropped.

The documents show Kevin Warsh wasn't always a Fed critic.

A phrase in today's Fed speech sent us into the archives.

On January 14, 2026, a Federal Reserve Governor said publicly what the institution had hidden for forty years.