Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views

The Almighty Dollar: 500 Years of the World’s Most Powerful Money by Brendan Greeley explores how money functions not as a sovereign creation, but as an evolving financial product.

This is a crazy number - over 98% of all Federal Government Receipts go to net interest and entitlements.

The Overton window is an effective tool for describing changing opinions in politics and science.

1873: The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Liaquat Ahamed expands on the themes of global financial fragility introduced in his acclaimed Lords of Finance.

Bonds are a bad bet, or have been a bad bet.

Copper has hit new highs as investors focus on rising demand from the tech sector, yet a fundamental supply problem remains.

There are supposed to be certain “rules” between market drivers and gold.

To price assets, you ned to know who will be the marginal buyer who will clear the market.

The real energy shock is not with the price of crude but with the price of refined products.

“Amateurs go broke taking large losses; professionals go broke taking small profits.”

When we discuss currency dominance, we also need to think about the world order.

I don’t believe there is an inherent reason for a dollar cycle.

The intra-stock correlation is at market extremes.

The big issue in US energy markets is the high price of diesel fuel, which raises shipping costs.

Partial knowledge is more often victorious than full knowledge; it conceives things simpler than they are and therefore makes its opinion easier to grasp and more persuasive. - Nietzsche Information overload exists.

The efficient frontier should be a well-defined curve when we have uncorrelated or negatively correlated assets such as stocks and bonds for the period 1986-2020.

Treasuries have been a safe asset, but it’s unclear whether they still are.

A news report creates market buzz, but it is important to look at the numbers: the MOVE index for bond market volatility is still in a longer-term downtrend and is off the high from earlier in the year.

hat tip Kevin Coldiron - the ideas lab for graphic The Treasury buyback program has received considerable attention, but some key foundational information is missing.

The Jackson Hole economic summit has an agenda set in advance, though it is released at the beginning of the conference.

The US deficit-bond math isn't very attractive.

If the bond vigilantes are back, it is not just in the US.

This simple chart provides the rules of thumb when thinking about the VIX.

I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision-makers.

Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a Treasury buyback program, an increase in an existing program, amid much market discussion about its objectives and what it means.