Herb Susmann

Our paper [Computationally and statistically efficient estimation of time-smoothed counterfactual curves] was published in Lifetime Data Analysis.

I had the pleasure of presenting our work on non-overlap treatment effect bounds at the American Causal Inference Conference held in Salt Lake City.

My joint work with Jeffrey Näf and Junhyung Park on Causal Distributional Random Forests was accepted at AISTATS 2026.

Our paper on shrinkage estimation for estimating large sets of causal parameters is now available at The Annals of Applied Statistics: Asymptotically efficient data-adaptive penalized shrinkage estimation with application to causal inference.

I have a new preprint on ArXiv with NYU Grossman PhD student Antonio D’Alessandro: The Counterfactual Combine: A Causal Framework for Player Evaluation.

I presented our work on non-overlap treatment effect bounds at the Online Causal Inference Seminar, an international seminar on causal inference.

My paper with Adrian Raftery Bayesian Projection of Extant Refugee and Asylum Seeker Populations is now published in Demography.

I presented joint work with Adrian Raftery on “Projections of Refugee and Asylum Seeker Populations by Country of Origin and Destination” at the Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2025 on “Demographic Perspectives on Migration in the 21st Century”.

I had the pleasure of visiting Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München to collaborate with Michael Schomaker under the auspices of the Center for Advanced Studies.

I was happy to visit UMass Amherst to give a talk for their Statistics and Data Science Seminar Series on our non-overlap bounds project, which is with Alec McClean and Iván Díaz.

I had the pleasure of giving an invited talk today in my home department, the Department of Population Health, at NYU Grossman School of Medicine as part of their Emerging Leaders in Research lecture series.

Our paper Doubly robust nonparametric efficient estimation for healthcare provider evaluation is now published in JRSS-A.

I have some new work out on ArXiv today discussing a non-parametric method for estimating time-smoothed effect curves.

I have a new preprint out on joint work with Alec McClean and Iván Díaz on a novel method for handling overlap (positivity) violations via the use of partial identification bounds: Non-overlap Average Treatment Effect Bounds.

My paper on non-parametric bounds for treatment effects under outcome left-censoring was just published in the Journal of Applied Statistics: Environmental Statistics and Data Science.

This post gathers some notes on the history of various topics with a focus on the history of semi-parametric efficiency theory and related estimators.

I visited JSM for the first time this year to present our work on generalizations of the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated to longitudinal settings as part of the invited session “Advanced Strategies for Longitudinal Causal Inference and Treatment S…

Antoine Chambaz and I had our work on Quantile Super Learner published in Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

We have a new preprint out looking at how to apply shrinkage estimation to estimating large sets of causal parameters: Asymptotically Efficient Data-adaptive Penalized Shrinkage Estimation with Application to Causal Inference.

Leontine Alkema and I had our article on flexible modeling of demographic transitions using B-splines published in JRSS-C.

There was a lot of statistical demography activity at PAA this year, centered around three consecutive sessions on Saturday morning.

I had the pleasure of visiting ENAR for the first time to give a talk on our work on generalizations of the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated to longitudinal settings.

Our paper Probabilistic prediction of arrivals and hospitalizations in emergency departments in Île-de-France was published in the International Journal of Medical Informatics.

Two new preprints out today related to our work on Bayesian hierarchical models for demographic and health indicators.

Jeffrey Näf and I have a new preprint available on ArXiv, Causal-DRF: Conditional Kernel Treatment Effect Estimation using Distributional Random Forest.

This post gathers resources that may be helpful in learning the semi-parametric statistical theory that is relevant to statistical methods development for causal inference.

We recently released an updated preprint of our work on longitudinal generalizations of the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated based on longitudinal modified treatment policies.

We now have a new preprint available, Doubly Robust Nonparametric Efficient Estimation for Provider Evaluation, co-authored with Yiting Li, Mara A.

I and Leontine Alkema have a new preprint available, Flexibly Modeling Shocks to Demographic and Health Indicators with Bayesian Shrinkage Priors.

I recently had an article published in COMPUTO, a journal of the French Royal Statistical Society, titled AdaptiveConformal: An R Package for Adaptive Conformal Inference.

Chiesa di San Simeon Piccolo, Venice, Italy.

Eugène Boudin, 1863: Beach Scene at Trouville.

Fitting a Gaussian Process and its derivative in Stan.

Conditioning a Gaussian Process on derivative observations, with code in R.

A few years ago, The New York Times published an article about several Major League Baseball players who use the sitcom Friends to improve their English.

Drawing from a Gaussian Process and its derivative.

Gun dealers in the U.S. are required to conduct instant background checks before selling weapons to individuals.

Note: this post has been updated with more recent data.

Autoregressive (AR) processes are a popular choice for modeling time-varying processes.

Write flexible Stan models by using the R formula interface.

We developed a novel interface for reporting results to participants of exposure studies.

New York Times columnist Nick Kristof covers the Detox Me Action Kit project.

Analyzing tweets from @dog_rates.

Calculating an optimal route between all the Boston area breweries using a Traveling Salesman Problem solver.

Calculating the probability of starting with a complete word in Bananagrams.

We built a crystal radio sets at a workshop for teens.

It turns out it is possible to write a minimal raytracer in Bash.