Bayesian Investor Blog

Noah Smith has a mostly excellent analysis of this decade’s trend of rising interest rates.

The folks who wrote AI 2027 have written a more optimistic narrative, which focuses more on hopes for good policies than on predictions about what policies we’ll get.

Brian Albrecht’s A compute tax is a REALLY dumb idea disputes a claim that I made in Safety Net When AIs Take Our Jobs about a possible need for a tax on GPUs and similar hardware.

I recently attended a talk at Manifest by Chad Jones on the economic effects of AI.

Book review: The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning, by Robert Wright.

We have seen signs that employees of AI companies can have significant influence on management (e.g.

I’ve analyzed the near-term economic effects of an AI pause, out of concern for my investments, and a desire to predict how strong political opposition to a pause is likely to be.

The tone of AI stock behavior has changed in important ways this spring.

Book review: The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, by Sebastian Mallaby.

I participated, as a superforecaster, in the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI survey.