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Max Ghenis

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Articole: 44

  1. What do forecasters say they don't know?

    (Max Ghenis)

    Professional forecasters in the US and euro area have reported full probability distributions for decades.

  2. A year of ChatGPT is a fifth of a beer

    (Max Ghenis)

    I built an interactive that prices drinks in AI queries — and lets you flip the accounting scope and the workload unit that make published AI water numbers differ by 100x.

  3. MacKenzie Scott's giving, in QALYs

    (Max Ghenis)

    An interactive cost-effectiveness model for MacKenzie Scott's $26B in philanthropy — and the AI prompts that built it.

  4. The administration is hand-picking who runs which frontier model — social posts

    (Max Ghenis)

    Social media posts for the GPT-5.6 / Fable approval double-standard post

  5. The administration is hand-picking who runs which frontier model

    (Max Ghenis)

    On the same stated cyber rationale, the Commerce Department pulled Anthropic's Fable 5 offline, the White House cleared OpenAI's GPT-5.6 for a chosen list of companies, and a second Commerce letter reopened Mythos 5 to 100-plus named organizations — three…

  6. The US government is gutting Anthropic's R&D capacity

    (Max Ghenis)

    A Commerce export control pulled Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 on Friday.

  7. How to turn money into predictions

    (Max Ghenis)

    A menu of mechanisms for organizations that want to fund forecasts on policy, economic, and AI outcomes.

  8. Talkie-1930 math evals social posts

    (Max Ghenis)

    Social media posts for the Talkie-1930 arithmetic evaluation post

  9. Can Talkie-1930 do arithmetic?

    (Max Ghenis)

    I tested Talkie-1930 on GSM8K and the easier EleutherAI/OpenAI arithmetic suite, then packaged an lm-eval-harness runner so the runs are reproducible.

  10. Billionaires aren't 'just as likely' to be nonpayers as top taxpayers

    (Max Ghenis)

    Checking Ray Madoff's claim on The Ezra Klein Show against ProPublica and PolicyEngine microdata.

  11. I used Bayesian statistics to optimize my bedding

    (Max Ghenis)

    How I combined Eight Sleep data, Whoop biometrics, and RCT evidence to pick a comforter and pillow

  12. I built a MyST-to-Quarto converter (and why you might need one)

    (Max Ghenis)

    mystquarto converts academic markdown between MyST and Quarto formats — directives, roles, config files, and frontmatter.

  13. One year of Claude Code

    (Max Ghenis)

    A year ago, Anthropic launched Claude Code.

  14. GiveWell CEA social posts

    (Max Ghenis)

    Social media posts for the GiveWell CEA interactive replication

  15. Interactive replication of GiveWell's cost-effectiveness analysis

    (Max Ghenis)

    I re-implemented GiveWell's cost-effectiveness models for all six top charities as an open-source web tool with editable parameters, moral weights, and sensitivity analysis.

  16. Why you can't make double eye contact

    (Max Ghenis)

    Your eyes can only converge on a single point.

  17. OpenMessage: How I built a macOS Google Messages client to give Claude my texts

    (Max Ghenis)

    I had already connected Claude Code to WhatsApp, Signal, Slack, and Gmail.

  18. Where US immigrants come from, and where ICE focuses enforcement

    (Max Ghenis)

    Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show highlighted the Americas.

  19. I used Claude Code to recertify for SNAP

    (Max Ghenis)

    Browser automation + document reading + form filling: Claude Code completed my SNAP recertification in about an hour of active work, across 373 tool calls.

  20. Scrollywood: Smooth scroll video recording for the web

    (Max Ghenis)

    A Chrome extension that records smooth-scrolling videos and GIFs of any webpage, built for capturing scrollytelling stories and long-form content.

  21. The adolescence of policy simulation: On Amodei and economic disruption

    (Max Ghenis)

    AI can answer policy questions.

  22. opencollective-py: Manage OpenCollective from your terminal or Claude Code

    (Max Ghenis)

    A Python client, CLI, and MCP server for the OpenCollective API.

  23. From IDE to AI orchestration: The end of code-first development

    (Max Ghenis)

    How AI coding tools evolved from autocomplete to autonomous agents, and why I expect to abandon my IDE entirely this month.

  24. TerminalGrid: Turn VS Code into a Claude Code superterminal

    (Max Ghenis)

    A VS Code extension for keyboard-driven terminal grid management with project picker and auto-launch for AI coding tools.

  25. RAMBar: A macOS menu bar RAM monitor for developers

    (Max Ghenis)

    A native macOS menu bar app for tracking memory usage across Claude Code sessions, VS Code workspaces, Chrome tabs, and Python processes.

  26. The definitive QALY analysis of nuts

    (Max Ghenis)

    A rigorous, evidence-based Monte Carlo simulation estimating the lifetime health impact of different nut types.

  27. How to Use MDX for Interactive Posts

    (Max Ghenis)

    This blog supports MDX, allowing you to embed React components, Plotly charts, and interactive elements directly in posts.

  28. VAT thresholds, revenues, and the role of counterfactuals

    (Max Ghenis)

    Debunking claims that raising the UK VAT threshold would increase tax revenues through growth effects.

  29. AI models favor Cuomo over Mamdani on NYC housing production

    (Max Ghenis)

    An experiment using six AI models to forecast NYC housing production under two mayoral candidates.

  30. Bad Bunny immigration enforcement social posts

    (Max Ghenis)

    Social media posts for the Bad Bunny immigration enforcement article

  31. My 2024 in code: Personal projects and AI tools

    (Max Ghenis)

    How AI helped me build useful software while leading PolicyEngine.

  32. Why I'm a neoliberal

    (Max Ghenis)

    My political philosophy and why I identify with neoliberalism - emphasizing evidence-based policy, market mechanisms, and a strong social safety net.

  33. In appointing their newest member, the Ventura City Council only pretended to care about housing

    (Max Ghenis)

    After asking each applicant about the housing crisis, most councilmembers voted for those least committed to solving it

  34. If you earned more in 2019 than 2018, don't file your 2019 taxes yet! Otherwise, file ASAP!

    (Max Ghenis)

    The right tax filing schedule could get you thousands in (poorly designed) Recovery Rebates.

  35. Why I’ve taken the Giving What We Can pledge

    (Max Ghenis)

    The global poor will benefit much more from ten percent of my income than I will

  36. Ventura County must end its unsheltered homelessness

    (Max Ghenis)

    We need to make shelters more abundant and housing more affordable

  37. Warren’s wealth tax would raise less than she claims — even using her economists’ own assumptions

    (Max Ghenis)

    Using their cited assumptions around avoidance and economic growth cuts revenue by a quarter

  38. Andrew Yang's troubling Tucker Carlson interview

    (Max Ghenis)

    The Democratic presidential candidate fed into Tucker's MAGA narrative

  39. Quantile regression, from linear models to trees to deep learning

    (Max Ghenis)

    Suppose a real estate analyst wants to predict home prices from factors like home age and distance from job centers.

  40. We should replace the Child Tax Credit with a universal child benefit

    (Max Ghenis)

    The Child Tax Credit (CTC) is one of the largest assistance programs for children in the US.

  41. The case for a wonky basic income plan

    (Max Ghenis)

    In March, a former union leader joined forces with a prominent libertarian to debate two Obama White House economists.

  42. Reddit featured a misleading headline on education secretary nominee Betsy DeVos

    (Max Ghenis)

    “billionaire”

  43. Uber's tipping settlement will reduce earnings of African-American drivers

    (Max Ghenis)

    This week, Uber reached a settlement with drivers in California and Massachusetts in a lawsuit concerning worker classification.

  44. If we can afford our current welfare system, we can afford basic income

    (Max Ghenis)

    Replacing the antipoverty bureaucracy