Bayesian Spectacles

It has long been known that the frequentist one-sided p-value from Null-Hypothesis Statistical Testing can be interpreted as a poor person’s Bayesian posterior probability.

The LLM revolution fundamentally changes how many researchers do their work.

A few years ago, my colleagues and I decided to test the Diaconis-Holmes-Montgomery (DHM) hypothesis that a fair coin, when flipped in the air and caught in the hand, tends to land on its starting side slightly more often than 50% (Diaconis, Holmes, & Mon…

Before proceeding, I should say something about Richard Feynman.

LT;DR In the current era of AI, there is no longer any excuse for manuscripts that contain typographical errors, grammatical errors, unclear formulations, errors in equations, incorrect references, missing references, and a demonstrated lack of awareness…

Recently I was hunting for an epigraph to start a manuscript on the topic of forgetting.

tl;dr: Bruss and Paindaveine did all of this already in December 2025, and better.

On January 26th this year, Johnny van Doorn presented an hour-long tutorial lecture on “Theory and Practice of Bayesian Inference Using JASP”.

For better or for worse, it appears that my most appreciated work is the children’s book Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers (the intro post is here and an exegesis is here).

The statistical significance test was not invented by Ronald Fisher.