Wolf Street

This generation of inflation-protected long-term tax-advantaged buy-and-forget savings products is more appealing than those of the past 20 years.

These are some sudden massive movements in even huge stocks.

But the trade deficit worsened, driven by the AI boom.

AI has changed the Internet, and WOLF STREET needs you more than ever.

The statement upgraded the economy and left the door wide open for rate hikes. 10-Year Treasury yield kneejerk jumps.

Total housing units grew by 1.51 million YoY (new construction minus demolition).

Homebuilders are doing their job creating new housing stock even as they’ve had trouble selling these homes.

Who is the smart money, after the home-price explosion?

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Conniptions in the Treasury Market calm down.

This is for October, advance notice, so to speak.

This could have been a massive mess.

The bond market has come to grips with these 5%-plus yields and settles in.

Mortgage Applications to purchase a home collapsed, a forward-looking indicator of the direction of home sales in October and November.

And these mortgage rates too shall pass?

Who owns the single-family and multifamily rental housing stock?

The magic 5%-line for the 10-year Treasury yield seems to be the new floor, after being the ceiling it couldn't break through for three years.

In another 13 bigger cities, prices fell by 9% to 10%.

Driven by spiking costs of energy and services.

Wolf Richter on Thoughtful Money.

Core services CPI +4.5% annualized, Core CPI +4.1% annualized, all-items CPI +8.1% annualized in September from August.

The numbers are out for the Cost-of-Living Adjustments for Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income.

Affordability crisis has softened in markets where home prices have fallen for a few years and hourly earnings have risen, but has worsened in others.

“I think we’ve probably got everything wrong.

The bond market is functioning again after the Fed’s interest rate repression between 2008-2022 had broken it.

The government is the most aggressive CRE lender.

The ECB shed €95 billion of QE Bonds & Loans in Q3.

The bond market is coming out from under 14 years of interest rate repression and is doing its thing, the way it is supposed to.

Mortgage applications to purchase a home plunged and to refinance a home collapsed.

Its QT is substantial and ongoing and impacts long-term yields of Japanese Government Bonds.

In New York, until recently a beacon of strength, the bottom fell out over the summer.

The dictum morphs from “Survive till ’25” (when low interest rates were supposed to return) to “Sell at today’s price, or the lender will.”

A wild ride across Europe’s very different housing markets.

Some thoughts on how I'm easing back into a bond portfolio after 14 years of interest-rate repression.

Big structural shifts have destroyed jobs in some industries and created jobs in others.

The labor force rose, after shedding 2.1 million people in 8 months amid the crackdown on illegal immigration and the wave of retirements.

The housing market, wrecked by ultralow mortgage rates, will stay wrecked for longer.

Construction companies are now facing the second wave of inflation.

Spending on discretionary goods and services that people buy to have fun with was particularly motivated.

Those changes in methodology knocked the PCE price index down, but even the new-and-improved version remained far above the Fed’s target.

Workers quit quitting and settled in, after the epic rematching of workers and employers.

It plans to spend $518 billion in the coming years on cloud, computing, and infrastructure obligations and now needs a lot of AI magic money.

It works really well, until it suddenly doesn’t.

It would make sense for the bond market to take a breather here and digest a little.

Orders received by manufacturers of core capital goods spiked by 14% YoY, of machinery by 15%, of IT equipment by 16%.

Homebuilders have been doing their job creating lots of new housing stock, but demand is weak, and supply sky-high.

They got spooked: 2-year Treasury yield +13 basis points to 4.90%, after yesterday’s auction. 7-year +14 basis points to 5.04%. 30-year hits 5.39%.

I'm worried about the inflationary mindset taking off again.

The local economy and housing market have become immensely dependent on unsustainable AI magic-money.

The 2-year and 3-year yields indicate that the 10-year yield could go way higher over the next few months.