Calafia Beach Pundit

Private sector job growth (the only jobs that really count) exceeded expectations in August (+127K vs +50K), but the overall picture remains the same: jobs growth over the past year or two has been very weak, but it has been improving over the course of t…

When I review recent news and ponder the meaning of the charts below, these are the thoughts that come to mind:The M2 money supply is well-behaved—the excesses of the Covid era have been absorbed—and it is once again growing at a rate that in the past has…

Our national debt is once again in the news, since it has supposedly reached a staggering $40 trillion.

The June payroll data released a few days ago bolsters the thesis that jobs growth is picking up.

We're back from a long trip to Argentina.

Rising real interest rates and falling non-energy commodity prices are laying the foundation for lower overall inflation.

Consumer confidence is low, and surveys find that the majority of the US population thinks the economy is getting worse.

Here's an updated look at key charts and indicators that I have been following for the past several years.

Corporate profits are the mother's milk for equity prices, and they are stronger than ever relative to the size of the economy.

As I write this, we are only 3 hours away from Trump's ultimatum to Iran: open the Strait or face annihilation.

The March '26 private sector jobs report released today was stronger than expected (186K vs 78K), but only modest when viewed from a multi-month perspective.

For the past 6 years, my good friend Steve Moore and his group, Unleash Prosperity, have been publishing what has got to be one of the best sources of information you can find, and it's free: The Unleash Prosperity Hotline.

This blog has the distinction of periodically tracking and analyzing the M2 measure of money supply for almost 2 decades.

The February jobs report was a lot weaker than expected (-92K vs an expected +130K).

Here's a selection of charts that I'm paying special attention to these days.

Yesterday's release of the December M2 money supply figures showed a continuation of the sub-6% growth trend that has been in place since inflation peaked in mid-2022.

This is a short note to highlight the significant decline in market volatility over the course of the past year.Price volatility is often thought of as "fear" that stems from uncertainty.

Valued readers, please excuse me.

This post is an update of a thesis I have been working on for many years.

Inflation is not like a virus that spreads through a population.

California voters approved the now-infamous high-speed-rail project in 2008; it was projected to cost some $33 billion and was to encompass some 800 miles, connecting Los Angeles to San Francisco, and the Central Valley to coastal cities, with an expected…

Since March 2021, on a total return basis, small cap stocks have underperformed large cap stocks by almost 60%, according to Bloomberg.

We've been in Maui the past few weeks on our annual family vacation.

California, with its fantastic climate, gorgeous geography and huge size, has been a mecca for millions ever since the Gold Rush.

Today the S&P 500 set yet another all-time high of 6,359.