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Paul Kedrosky

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Articole: 15

  1. Roundup: Insurance, Risk, Amdahl's Law and RSI, and more

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    What's ahead: The Balance Sheet Is Catching Up The Risk Has to Land Somewhere The Serial Fraction Wins Capability Can Become Correlation China Is Building Around the Chokepoints The Balance Sheet Is Catching Up What Happened The financing side of the AI b…

  2. OpenAI Astra's Improvements, and Why You Probably Won't Notice

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    What Happened OpenAI released its GPT-6 Astra model this week, calling it its most capable model yet.

  3. The AI Re-Acceleration That Wasn’t

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    What Happened A recent analysis claims that AI model progress has sharply re-accelerated.

  4. AI, Memory Prices, and the Engineering Response

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    What Happened The most visible response to soaring memory prices—now perhaps more than 75% of a server bill of materials (according to Google)—is higher semiconductor capex: new fabs, more HBM packaging, and an approaching flood of Chinese DRAM capacity.

  5. Roundup: New Interview, LLM Flip-Flopping, Cyberattacks, Jobs, etc.

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    What's Ahead "Big Tech" Interview The Price of Intelligence Goldman Does a 5x on Its Humanoid Robot Forecast Models Easily Flip Response States AI Is Driving a Wave of Cyberattacks on Critical Infrastructure A New World Inflationary Order, Driven by CapEx…

  6. Jobless Profits Aren’t a Mystery, But They Are an Augury

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    What Happened Analysts at sell-side firms have highlighted an apparent puzzle in the most recent economic data: profits are soaring, but hiring is not.

  7. The Fed on AI: Markets Understand Us, But We Don’t Understand Them

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    What Happened AI has been almost absent from the just-completed annual Kansas City Federal Reserve event in Jackson Hole.

  8. Why Software Developers Are Highly Unrepresentative of Broader AI Use

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    What Happened Will anyone ultimately use AI as intensively as software developers do?

  9. Three Things I'm Thinking About This Weekend: Tonedeaf AI, METR, and Hydroelectricity

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    1.

  10. Recent Interviews Roundup

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    A quick heads-up that you can find a few new interviews with me this week, including in the current Grant's (subscribers only) on data center debt, as well as a longer one I did with Mebane Faber, which is out today and you can find here.

  11. China's Semiconductor Capex Adds are Massive

    (Paul Kedrosky)

  12. Memory Scarcity Is Creating Its Own Exit, Part II: CXMT, YMTC, etc.

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    There are three parts to this note about the AI-related memory supercycle.

  13. The Data Center Buildout Just Hit an Inflection

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    What Happened Three things are changing at once in the AI data center outlook (ignoring the quickly changing data center engineering dynamics and its implications for memory, which I will return to on Friday).

  14. Data Centers are Making the U.S. Grid Run Backwards

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    Two rules have shaped U,S. electricity planning for a century.

  15. The Memory Boom Is Already Creating Its Own Bust

    (Paul Kedrosky)

    If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. - Herb Stein, Senior Fellow.