Measure is unceasing

Small startup nonprofits, such as those from Charity Entrepreneurship, face the tradeoff between staying smaller, and thus by default more cost-effective per unit of money, and grow, and accept diminishing returns but larger impact.

Our hero, Arjuna, finds himself in a position of either fighting his cousins, who have gone to war against him, or losing his kingdom and abandoning his duty as a warrior.

American’s base needs are met.

People come to askaforecaster.com, and magic ball tells us all.

Frameworks that try to predict reality can fail when they miss crucial details.

A dollar is a promise.

The share of the surface of the Earth which is very urban turns out to be a recurring question when estimating various catastrophic risks, like asteroids or volcanoes.

The baserate for all companies The U.S.

A slightly abstruse tax issue affecting non-US contractors for US organizations is that sometimes such organizations ask for a W-8BEN form, but that form asks you to claim tax treaty benefits.

Here is a simple model of the US electoral college.

1.

Consider the number of people you know who share your birthday.

Intro EA was born out of a very specific cultural milieu, and holds a very specific yet historically contingent shape.

AI safety forecasting questions tl;dr: This document contains a list of forecasting questions, commissioned by Open Philanthropy as part of its aim to have more accurate models of future AI progress.

Auftragstaktik is a method of command and delegation where the commander gives subordinates a clearly-defined objective, high-level details, and the tools needed to accomplish their objective.

Introduction In recent years there have been various attempts at using forecasting to discern the shape of the future development of artificial intelligence, like the AI progress Metaculus tournament, the Forecasting Research Institute’s existential risk…

Epistemic status: This post is blunt.

The Unix utility wc counts words.

Manifund is a new effort to improve, speed up and decentralize funding mechanisms in the broader Effective Altruism community, by some of the same people previously responsible for Manifold.

tl;dr: Incorporate keeping track of accuracy into X1.

Here is a list of internet services that I make freely available to friends and allies, broadly defined—if you are reading this, you qualify.

squiggle.c is a self-contained C99 library that provides functions for simple Monte Carlo estimation, based on Squiggle.

Cover for Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger, by Daft Punk In The American Empire has Alzheimer’s, we saw how the US had repeatedly been rebuffing forecasting-style feedback loops that could have prevented their military and policy failures.

For the last few years, while I was employed at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute, a focus of my work has been on estimating impact, and on doing so in a more hardcore way, and for more speculative domains, than the Effective Altruism community

There is an interesting thing around consent and betting: Clueless people can’t give fully informed consent around taking some bets I offer, because if they were fully informed, they wouldn’t make the bet, because they would know that I’m a few levels abo…

Consider the following relationship:

tl;dr: I present relative estimates for animal suffering and 2022 top Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) charities.

Status: Simple point worth writting up clearly.

We want to forecast the arrival of human-level AI systems.

Summary I consider a simple version of “worldview diversification”: allocating a set amount of money per cause area per year.

About forum.nunosempere.com is a frontend for the Effective Altruism Forum.

Do you want to bring up something to me or to the kinds of people who are likely to read this post?