Marginal REVOLUTION

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That is a new Nature paper by Jiacheng Miao, Joe R.

And this leads to the most interesting part of this story: how the highlanders were so isolated for so long.

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I am not a big fan of the “now more than ever” post, which interprets recent events to support—surprise!

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.

I agree with Alex that the standard model of regulatory capture does not apply here, but I think he neglects the best model we have.

Always focus on what you can learn from people and groups.

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Michael Kremer picked as World Bank chief economist (Bloomberg).

It’s amazing how a theory can take over a brain.

From Aniket Baksy and Daniele Caratelli, here is part of the abstract: Because larger firms are more attractive targets but also invest more in protection, the model generates an inverse-U relationship between firm size and attack risk, consistent with the

Whatever your ideas for regulating AI, I say start with China.

Share prices of cyber firms have jumped around a lot in recent weeks, leading one side or the other to claim victory.

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Here’s the S&P 500 (daily close) with the key COVID and policy events marked; the numbered key is below the chart.

Horwitz is in the business of playing a version of mom for local college students.

Many of us brought up related points at the time, but basically we were booed off the reservation: While recent research has provided evidence that the Medicaid expansions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) reduced mortality, there is no evidence on the eff…

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Anthropic’s economic team, including Anton Korinek and Chad Jones, have a valuable new paper, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI.

The Dark Ages implies television and phones are the main cause of cognitive decline.

From a new NBER working paper: Whether AI assistance builds or erodes professional expertise is unsettled.

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Diversity is our strength is a common motto.

The Solow model has its uses, but it fails when it comes to major changes stemming from AI.

Here is the statement, signed by Terry Tao among many other math notables, most of you probably have read it by now.

My second concern is the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident (OAI-HF), in which a swarm of agents essentially acted as a fanatically devoted collective, conducting cybersecurity attacks on targets they were not asked to attack and that were unrelated to the task…

The UK economy grew 0.4 per cent in July as the global AI boom helped deliver an unexpectedly robust start to the third quarter, in a boost to Prime Minister Andy Burnham as he prepares for a tough first Budget next month.

The Prediction Archive is a public database of tens of thousands of world predictions.

New technologies swept through Britain during the Second Industrial Revolution, destroying old jobs and creating new ones.

From GPT Pro: The Manhattan Project scientists were remarkably good technological and arms-race forecasters.

Why is war so economically costly?

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You will find it here, with transcript.

Here is the link.

A key U.S. government report on mental health, substance use and addiction showed continued improvements in several metrics, especially among young people.

Here is the link, here is the end bit: Who is the most important thinker of our time?

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By Anton Korinek, Charles I.

The IMF dropped the lead candidate to become its new chief economist at the eleventh hour after he was found to have made critical remarks about the Trump administration’s economic policies, according to people briefed on the process.

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.

Yes I will be doing a podcast with him.

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A spot of good news for Britain.

In 2015, 6 of the top 25 bestselling hardcover books—this is a not-perfect but useful proxy for new books published—were fiction.

That is the topic of my latest Free Press column, here is one excerpt: …college is a great place to make friends, date, and possibly meet a spouse.

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Some Terry Tao.