Dr Kevin Bonham

TURLOV/ANAND ELECTED ON SECOND BALLOT 110-85 OVER ROSENSTEIN/TANG INITIAL RESULTS WERE 96-76 WITH 20 FOR BUETTNER/PEIN BUETTNER/PEIN ENDORSED TURLOV/ANAND FOLLOWING A POLICY DEAL Late updates: Sunday 27th: Rosenstein has gone to the Court of Disputed Retu…

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Advance Summary 1.

uComms Tas (state) Lib 26.8 ALP 21.8 ON 18.4 Grn 15.9 IND 15.0 SFF 1.6 Nat 0.1 others 0.5 Seat estimate Lib 10 ALP 9 ON 8 Grn 4-5 IND 3-4 Today came the unexpected surprise of a new uComms poll of Tasmanian state voting intention commissioned by the anti-…

Five years ago I debunked a drippy poll denial video by the supposedly left wing West Media.

Secret Harbour (ALP 11.54%) George Tree (ALP) vs Luke Herdegen (ON), Ryan Robertson (Lib) and way too many others Cause of by-election: resignation of Paul Papalia (ALP) CALLED (9:34) One Nation gain from Labor --------------------------------------------…

EMRS Lib 26 (+1) ALP 23 (-1) ON 21 (+2) Grn 16 (+2) IND 14 (-2) others 1 (-1) Seat estimate (new boundaries) Lib 10 ALP 9 ON 8 Green 5 IND 3 The latest EMRS poll is out as released on the Poll Position pod and the changes on state voting intentions are all

This week there was an article regarding a report released by a lobby group called 4 Year Terms Australia, which supports "fixed" four year terms for federal parliament.

Today is Victoria's first day since the mid-2000s without Group Ticket Voting in state elections.

GTV repeal has passed Assembly unanimously and Legislative Council with a handful of votes against. ----------------------- There is more encouraging news on the Group Ticket Voting front today with the Allan Carroll Government finally amid the chaos intr…

It's another success for voters in the Next Leader To Go Not-A-Poll as the outright majority favourite was indeed the next leader to depart, improving the record of Not-A-Poll to 8/15 including six of the last seven.

In 1984 there was a proposal to rename the electorate that is now called Lyons (and was then called Wilmot) "Truganini".

Victoria Aggregate Labor 26.0 Coalition 27.3 Green 12.8 One Nation 23.7 others 10.3 (polls are probably underestimating "others" vote) 2PP estimate 52.0 to Coalition vs ALP, shadow-2PP ALP 50.1 vs One Nation Currently Coalition would be likely to govern in

The last week has brought the encouraging news via both The Age and The Herald-Sun that Victorian Labor is preparing legislation to scrap Group Ticket Voting at the last possible chance before this year's election.

Today could be a momentous day in the history of Tasmanian electoral boundaries!

DemosAU Liberal 28 Labor 21 One Nation 21 Greens 14 IND 12 SF+F 2 Others 2 Seat estimate if these vote shares were recorded in election "held now" Lib 10 ALP 9 ON 8 Grn 4 IND 4 After a previous state poll which did not explicitly include One Nation, Demos…

I had a piece in drafts almost ready to release for weeks about this, but perhaps just as well I didn't since further developments have rendered the draft somewhat out of date.

Frequently I post federal polling results and calculations to the microblogging sites Twitter (X) and Bluesky (links to my accounts in sidebar); here is an example I posted today: The standard items I include are the primary votes for all parties, any two…

Please explain!

In an article way back in 2015 I noted that the faux-progressive website "Independent Australia" was independent of "Quality control, consistency, accuracy and editorial skill."

It was as sure as night follows day, as sure as daylight savings fading the curtains (oh wait) that the Stafford by-election result would see the Queensland right again beating the drum for optional preferences.

2PP Aggregate 52.4 to Labor vs Coalition (term low, -0.8 since last week) Shadow-2PP 52.9 to Labor vs One Nation (-0.6 since last week) Labor would win election"held now" but most likely with only a small majority This is my usual annual post about federal

EMRS Lib 25 (-4) ALP 24 (+1) ON 19 (+5) GRN 14 (-1) IND 16 (+1) others 2 (-2) Seat estimate off this poll if election "held now" Lib 8-9 ALP 10 ON 8 Grn 4-5 IND 4 others 0 The funniest thing about this week's EMRS poll is that it was taken before.

Stafford (ALP 5.32%) Luke Richmond (ALP) vs Fiona Hammond (LNP) and others Cause of by-election: death of Jimmy Sullivan (ALP/IND) ALP retain with c. 4.4% swing to LNP --- Monday: Not much more to see Casey Briggs has tweeted that he understands there are…

Farrer (Lib vs IND 6.2%, Lib vs ALP 12.9%) Raissa Butkowski (Lib) vs Michelle Milthorpe (IND), David Farley (ON) and others Cause of by-election resignation of Sussan Ley (Lib) CALLED (7:46 pm) Farley (One Nation) gain from Liberal -----------------------…

Does this look like a Labor front to you?

On this website I have frequently covered Victoria's ongoing failure to repeal the use of Group Ticket Voting in state Legislative Council elections.

Huon: Clare Glade-Wright (IND) elected, gain from Dean Harriss (IND) Rosevears: Jo Palmer (Lib) retain.