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We present a minimal model for elections in two-party systems [1].
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This is a companion article to our post PCA response to scaling.
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The PCA algorithm is sensitive to changes in measurement scale.
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Here, we review the time value of money concept and its application to optimizing marketing (or other asset investment) spend.
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A regression fit can sometimes look surprisingly poor when plotted on top of data, with the two having visually different slopes.
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Here, we consider the problem of allocating limited inventory across demand sites, given the availability of a lower-quality substitute that can be used when inventory runs out.
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We ask at which floors we should place a set of idle elevators in a building so as to minimize the expected wait time of the next caller.
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When steady traffic limits the speed on a road, we argue that its throughput becomes independent of traffic density.
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We review the classical framework for profit-maximizing pricing under steady demand.
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Forecast error leads to misallocation of inventory across demand channels, driving lost sales.
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Brands often sell through both the direct-to-consumer (DTC) and wholesale channels, with demand in each uncertain before the season starts.
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Retailers prefer to carry products that have both high expected demand and low demand uncertainty.
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We consider the problem of allocating a fixed inventory across multiple locations.
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E-commerce apparel return rates today average around 20% — but this average is rising, and rates on individual products vary widely.
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Why do grocery stores often carry over 100 options for both cheese and wine — but just a handful for pasta?
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I'm obsessed with optimizing complex assortments – catalogs in categories like apparel, wine, and beauty, where many products compete for the same customer attention.
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The newsvendor model provides inventory planners with a framework for setting optimal order quantities when demand is uncertain and there is a limited selling window – as in seasonal apparel.
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In our last note, we discussed safety stock analysis — how to decide when to reorder.
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In this back-to-basics post, we review three results from safety stock theory that can help retailers to maintain a lean inventory without compromising service levels.
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Merchandisers often carry a single garment in multiple prints or colorways.
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Accurately identifying a garment's color is essential for many modeling applications.
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It's risky for a business to invest in new, unproven products.
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I confess I sometimes don't pay the parking meter when I just need to pop into a store to quickly grab an item.
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My friend Andrew is an advocate of the "spaced repetition" technique for memorization of a great many facts [1].
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There are four ways to make change for \(N=10\) cents: \(\{\)10 pennies; 1 nickel and 5 pennies; 2 nickels; 1 dime\(\}\).
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In this note, I consider a generalization of Dollar Cost Averaging -- a popular investing strategy that involves gradually building up one's holding in a stock over a pre-specified period of time.
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Textbook proofs of the duality theorem often apply abstract arguments that offer little tangible insight into the relationship between a linear program and its dual.
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We review how one can price a dividend-bearing stock by simply discounting its dividend stream using the value suggested by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).
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A person's happiness does not depend only on their current lot in life, but also on the rate of change of their lot.
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I was struck the other day by the following: The cooking instructions on my Bob's tri-colored quinoa package said to combine 2 cups of water with 1 cup of dried quinoa, which would ultimately create 4 cups of cooked quinoa.
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Pooling of test samples can be used to reduce the mean number of test counts required to determine who in a set of subjects carries a disease.
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CPPI* is a risk management tactic that can be applied to any investment portfolio.
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We consider the equilibrium drawdown distribution for a biased random walk -- in the context of a repeated investment game, the drawdown at a given time is how much has been lost relative to the maximum capital held up to that time.
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We give a simple class for marking the time at different points in a code block and then printing out the time gaps between adjacent marked points.
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Here, we highlight one of the most important benefits of tax protected accounts (eg Traditional and Roth IRAs and 401ks).
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We consider how the GDP or utility output of a city depends on the number of people living within it.
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We use a simple argument to estimate the speed of traffic on a highway as a function of the density of cars.
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We illustrate the application of two linear compression algorithms in python: Principal component analysis (PCA) and least-squares feature selection.
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This is a tutorial post relating to our python feature selection package, linselect.
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This note addresses the typical applied problem of estimating from data how a target "conversion rate" function varies with some available scalar score function -- e.g., estimating conversion rates from some marketing campaign as a function of a targeting…
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We review the math and code needed to fit a Gaussian Process (GP) regressor to data.
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Here, I give a quick review of the concept of a Martingale.
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We review binary logistic regression.
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I review -- and provide derivations for -- some basic properties of Normal distributions.
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The AUC score is a popular summary statistic that is often used to communicate the performance of a classifier.
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We demo a script that converts python numerical commands to LaTeX format.
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Here, we provide a brief introduction to reinforcement learning (RL) -- a general technique for training programs to play games efficiently.
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Here, we briefly review a subtlety associated with machine-learning model selection: the fact that the optimal hyperparameters for a model can vary with training set size, \(N.\) To illustrate this point, we derive expressions for the optimal strength for…
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We review the Metropolis algorithm -- a simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method -- and its application to estimating posteriors in Bayesian statistics.
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We review classical linear regression using vector-matrix notation.