Econbrowser

(This is an example for my “financial system” course.)

(Per open sources) from USNI: Source: USNI, as edited by author.

The term spread is positive in Canada through September.

Some divergence from Cleveland Fed nowcast vs.

From Motio Research: The methodology and interpretation are described in this guest post by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria, Motio co-founders.

This is the new “go to” website, from Jason Furman (former Chair, CEA; professor at Kennedy School, nonresident fellow at PIIE): EconVitals also goes onto my links for my macro, financial economics students!

Over $116/bbl.

Looking pretty good — although one needs to wonder about analysts’ estimates of forward earnings… Source: Yardeni.com, accessed 22.10.2026.

Overall, for HS graduates: Figure 1: Real median weekly wages for all production and nonsupervisory workers (blue), for high school graduates (2nd quartile) (red), in logs 2024Q4=0.

Then, when next you fly; or ship something high value from abroad.

From FT yesterday: These are the large players in the AI boom; consider smaller players also involved in the AI boom: Credit markets are coming for CoreWeave.

From the October WSJ survey: Figure 1: Ten year Treasury yields (black), October WSJ survey mean (blue square), July WSJ survey mean (light green triangles), all in %.

Recent releases: Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), October WSJ mean forecast (blue), GDPNow (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast (red *), October WEO (tan +).

The abstract of a new paper coauthored with Laurent Ferrara, “Missing Recessions: Revisiting the Term Spread’s Predictive Power”: The failure of a recession to materialize in 2024 has forced a reappraisal of the term spread as the most reliable recession…

and Monthly GDP for August, manufacturing production.

Here are several price indicators for consumers: Figure 1: CPI – all urban (black), CPI wage earners and clerical workers (purple), chained CPI (light green), CPI ex-shelter (blue), AIER Everyday Price Index (red), all in logs 2025M01=0.

September CPI registered upside surprise: Figure 1: CPI (blue, left log scale), Bloomberg y/y consensus (blue +), core CPI (red, right log scale), Bloomberg y/y consensus (red +).

From Steve Kamin: Until early in President Donald Trump’s second term, the sensitivity of the dollar to the difference between the slope in the U.S. yield curve and foreign yield curves was mainly positive, as expected.

From the Sveriges Riksbank: The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2026 to Robert E.

From Bloomberg: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent named Judy Shelton, a former nominee to the Federal Reserve board and a onetime gold-standard enthusiast, as an adviser to counsel him on issues including China’s financial system.

Preliminary at 46.3 < 47.5 Bloomberg consensus with expectations above consensus, and current conditions below.

Jared Bernstein, along with others, calculates the revenues needed to rationalize the AI capital investment in place and planned.

Speaking at a rally in Nebraska (NYT), regarding the Iranians: “They could take out a city,” he said.

Employment downside surprise, +29K vs +89, with cumulative 81K downward revisions to previous two months.

Using a plain vanilla term spread model (spread, short rate), what remains?

Q2 GDP growth revised up 0.7 ppts, path of personal income ex-transfers up due to revised deflator.

From EIA: From Bloomberg today: The US ordered another release of oil from emergency reserves — and urged European nations to do likewise — as the Trump administration grapples with fuel prices that are surging less than two months before the midterm elec…

From the Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update: A slight respite, but oil prices have risen again, so probably brief.

Conference Board index registers 81.9 vs consensus 89.2 (and previous 88.6).

As of today’s close: Figure 1: Change since 2/27 in ten year Treasury yields (blue), in ten year TIPS (red), in %.

Over 5.2%: Part of the reason?

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

What did we think was happening back then, compared to what we know now?

Rise in 10 year rates is mostly showing up in real rates, as proxied by TIPS.

As share of total diesel+heating oil+gasoline consumption volume (a somewhat strange measure to me, but probably gets the idea across), from Nate Silver:

As of September 11.

Here are several measures of manufacturing employment.

From the High Road Strategy Center, an annual report: Wisconsin job growth grinds to a halt Wisconsin had 3,042,900 jobs in July 2026, down from the record 3,051,000 jobs reached in November 2024.

Data through yesterday: Figure 1: Regular gasoline (blue, left scale), diesel (red, left scale), jet fuel-kerosene (green, left scale), all $/gal., and spot price Brent oil (black, right scale), $/bbl, all weekly average of daily prices.

According to AAA, regular gasoline is up 3.8% relative to a week ago, diesel up 4.5%.

Motio Research‘s measure is down 1.2% relative to May, but flat relative to July.

Implications from the Atlanta Fed Taylor Rule utility default settings: Red x denotes 3.88%, orange line Trump’s 1% prescription.

Reduced traffic through Straits of Hormuz, Bab al Mandeb, front month Brent futures at $103 with dated European Brent having reached a high of $130, US diesel at record high, and a threat of expanding Mideast conflict as US stockpiles of precision munitio…

That’s EJ Antoni, Chief Economist of Heritage, writing three days ago in the Washington Times: Dr.

IP flat, below +0.3% m/m Bloomberg consensus, manufacturing -0.3% below +0.3%.

From NYT: “Geopolitical factors and U.S. weaponization of the dollar through financial sanctions are causing central banks and other official investors to attempt to diversify away from dollar assets,” said Eswar Prasad, the former head of the Internation…

GDPNow as of today is 5.1% q/q AR for Q3: Figure 1: GDP (black), August Survey of Professional Forecasters (purple), GDPNow (light blue square), Goldman Sachs tracking (inverted chartreuse triangle), NY Fed 9/11 (red triangle), September FT Booth (blue +).

From Polymarket today, 3pm CT: The sharp deterioration in Republican odds for holding the Senate occurred almost immediately after the beginning of the US-Iran War.

Here’s the CME’s Fedwatch implied path for the Fed funds rate as of noon CT today: Figure 1: Effective Fed funds (bold blue), 3 month Treasury yield (red), 10 year (green), 30 year (black), all constant maturity yields, in %.

Brent spot FOB through yesterday: